{"id":91537,"date":"2025-03-15T10:48:18","date_gmt":"2025-03-15T03:48:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/?p=91537"},"modified":"2025-03-15T11:08:32","modified_gmt":"2025-03-15T04:08:32","slug":"alat-interaktif-untuk-kongo-menawarkan-gambaran-masa-depan-hutan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/id\/91537\/alat-interaktif-untuk-kongo-menawarkan-gambaran-masa-depan-hutan","title":{"rendered":"Kongo Demokratik Kembangkan Alat Interaktif untuk Memproyeksikan Skenario Masa Depan Hutan"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bagaimana emisi gas rumah kaca di Republik Demokratik Kongo (DRC) akan berkembang saat negara ini menjalankan komitmennya dalam Perjanjian Paris? Bagaimana skenario tersebut dibandingkan dengan skenario bisnis seperti biasa? Dan bagaimana dampaknya di lapangan?<\/p>\n

SimDRC, sebuah alat digital interaktif baru, membantu menjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan ini. Platform ini memungkinkan perencana memproyeksikan emisi karbon berdasarkan berbagai skenario deforestasi, sehingga perencana dan pengambil keputusan lebih fleksibel dalam menentukan strategi terbaik untuk memenuhi komitmen iklim negara, yang dikenal sebagai Kontribusi yang Ditetapkan Secara Nasional (NDC).<\/p>\n

Dengan SimDRC, pengguna dapat membandingkan skenario bisnis seperti biasa dengan skenario berbasis target NDC, yang terus diperbarui seiring perkembangan komitmen. Alat ini bergabung dengan platform serupa<\/a> yang dikembangkan untuk Peru dan Brasil dalam Global Comparative Study on REDD+ (GCS REDD+<\/a>) yang dipimpin oleh Center for International Forestry Research and World Agroforestry (CIFOR-ICRAF<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Dikembangkan oleh para peneliti dari Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG<\/a>) dan Centre for Territorial Intelligence, SimDRC meningkatkan kemampuan pembuat kebijakan dalam mengambil keputusan yang lebih tepat.<\/p>\n

\u201cDengan mensimulasikan berbagai skenario berdasarkan kebutuhan spesifik, perencana dapat memperoleh wawasan berharga untuk perumusan kebijakan dan pengelolaan hutan berkelanjutan,\u201d kata Richard Van der Hoff, profesor di UFMG yang terlibat dalam pengembangan alat ini. \u201cKami ingin membantu mereka memperkirakan upaya yang diperlukan untuk mencapai komitmen NDC serta memahami dampak berbagai pola deforestasi terhadap emisi dari perubahan penggunaan lahan dan sektor kehutanan. Ini akan mendukung perencanaan konservasi yang lebih baik dan pengelolaan hutan berkelanjutan yang lebih efektif.\u201d <\/span>

\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tRead also<\/span><\/span>\n\t\t\t\tDeforestation and Carbon Emission Simulators<\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div><\/span><\/p>\n

Pendekatan pemodelan yang komprehensif<\/strong><\/h2>\n

SimDRC dikembangkan menggunakan model yang menggabungkan berbagai karakteristik lingkungan dan sosial-ekonomi, seperti hidrografi, ketinggian lahan, jenis tanah, vegetasi, biomassa, tutupan pohon, kehilangan hutan, suhu, curah hujan, kepadatan penduduk, kawasan lindung, serta konsesi kayu dan pertambangan. Model ini juga mempertimbangkan infrastruktur seperti tambang, rel kereta api, jalan, dan permukiman.<\/p>\n

Pengguna dapat menghasilkan proyeksi berdasarkan tiga skenario yang tersedia.<\/p>\n

Model pertama, yaitu skenario “business as usual,” menetapkan garis dasar untuk mengukur pengurangan emisi sesuai dengan Perjanjian Paris. Dalam skenario ini, NDC DRC menargetkan pengurangan emisi keseluruhan sebesar 21% dan emisi dari perubahan penggunaan lahan serta sektor kehutanan sebesar 28% pada 2030 dibandingkan dengan garis dasar. Deforestasi diperkirakan meningkat dari 852.000 hektare pada 2021 menjadi lebih dari 1,1 juta hektare pada 2030.<\/p>\n

Skenario kedua menggunakan rata-rata tingkat deforestasi selama lima tahun (2016\u20132020) untuk memproyeksikan deforestasi pada 2021\u20132030. Dalam skenario ini, deforestasi diperkirakan tetap stabil di sekitar 639.000 hektare.<\/p>\n

Skenario ketiga, yang didasarkan pada NDC dan dikenal sebagai Strategi Pembangunan Pedesaan Rendah Emisi Regional, memperkirakan peningkatan deforestasi yang lebih lambat, dari 613.000 hektare pada 2021 menjadi 832.000 hektare pada 2030.<\/p>\n

Dalam setiap skenario, pengguna dapat menyesuaikan proyeksi deforestasi hingga ke tingkat distrik, fitur penting mengingat faktor penyebab deforestasi berbeda di setiap wilayah. “Hal ini sangat krusial,” kata Van der Hoff, “karena penyebab deforestasi bervariasi di berbagai bagian negara.”<\/p>\n

\"\"
Deforestasi di dekat Yangambi, DRC. Foto oleh Axel Fassio \/ CIFOR-ICRAF.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Memahami dinamika deforestasi<\/strong><\/h2>\n

DRC mengalami kehilangan hutan terbesar di Cekungan Kongo, yang mencakup enam negara. Studi yang dilakukan oleh Van der Hoff dan rekan-rekannya mencatat bahwa sekitar 11 juta hektare hutan hilang antara tahun 2001 dan 2020.<\/p>\n

\u201cMeski perladangan berpindah skala kecil sering disebut sebagai penyebab utama deforestasi, fluktuasi dalam tingkat deforestasi menunjukkan pentingnya memahami faktor-faktor pemicu spesifik di setiap lokasi,\u201d ujar Van der Hoff.<\/p>\n

Misalnya, pembangunan infrastruktur\u2014seperti tambang baru\u2014dapat menarik pencari kerja yang kemudian menetap dan mulai bertani, sehingga meningkatkan kehilangan hutan. Sementara itu, di zona konflik di bagian timur negara, deforestasi dapat terjadi ketika penduduk yang mengungsi akibat kekerasan berpindah ke wilayah baru. Pertanian skala besar dan konsesi kayu juga dapat memicu migrasi, yang pada akhirnya mengubah pola pemukiman dan deforestasi.<\/p>\n

NDC DRC mengasumsikan bahwa konflik yang sedang berlangsung akan terselesaikan. Namun, ketidakpastian geopolitik semacam ini berada di luar kendali perencana kehutanan.<\/p>\n

Dengan SimDRC, mereka dapat memperhitungkan kehilangan hutan secara lokal dan membuat proyeksi deforestasi serta emisi gas rumah kaca yang lebih akurat. \u201cKe depan,\u201d kata Van der Hoff, \u201cSimDRC dapat dimodifikasi untuk memasukkan elemen-elemen lainnya.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cKeunggulan alat ini adalah kemampuannya untuk beradaptasi jika pembuat kebijakan ingin meningkatkan dan memperbaikinya,\u201d kata Van der Hoff. \u201cNamun, itu adalah pekerjaan untuk masa depan. Saat ini, yang terpenting adalah tersedianya alat yang dapat digunakan oleh pembuat kebijakan.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Acknowledgements<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Pekerjaan ini dilakukan sebagai bagian dari Studi Perbandingan Global tentang REDD+ yang dilaksanakan oleh Center for International Forestry Research (www.cifor.org\/gcs<\/a>). Para mitra pendanaan yang mendukung penelitian ini termasuk Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation<\/i> (Norad, Hibah No. QZA-21\/0124), International Climate Initiative<\/i> (IKI) dari of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety<\/i> (BMU, Hibah No. 20_III_108), serta Program Penelitian CGIAR tentang Hutan, Pohon, dan Agroforestri (CRP-FTA) dengan dukungan keuangan dari CGIAR.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bagaimana emisi gas rumah kaca di Republik Demokratik Kongo (DRC) akan berkembang saat negara ini menjalankan komitmennya dalam Perjanjian Paris? Bagaimana skenario tersebut dibandingkan dengan skenario bisnis seperti biasa? Dan bagaimana dampaknya di lapangan? SimDRC, sebuah alat digital interaktif baru, membantu menjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan ini. Platform ini memungkinkan perencana memproyeksikan emisi karbon berdasarkan berbagai skenario deforestasi, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":91540,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[161,6090,151],"tags":[772,371,123],"language":[2171],"location":[12257],"tag-bahasa":[2522,7301],"tag-espanol":[],"tag-francais":[],"type-espanol":[],"type-bahasa":[],"type-english":[2431],"type-francais":[],"coauthors":[831],"class_list":["post-91537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-deforestation","category-forests-news","category-redd-2","tag-congo-basin","tag-deforestation","tag-redd","language-bahasa-indonesia","location-democratic-republic-of-congo","tag-bahasa-deforestasi","tag-bahasa-gcs-redd","type-english-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nKongo Demokratik Kembangkan Alat Interaktif untuk Memproyeksikan Skenario Masa Depan Hutan - Landscape Alliance Forests News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/id\/91537\/alat-interaktif-untuk-kongo-menawarkan-gambaran-masa-depan-hutan\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"id_ID\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kongo Demokratik Kembangkan Alat Interaktif untuk Memproyeksikan Skenario Masa Depan Hutan\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bagaimana emisi gas rumah kaca di Republik Demokratik Kongo (DRC) akan berkembang saat negara ini menjalankan komitmennya dalam Perjanjian Paris? 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