{"id":90705,"date":"2024-11-26T16:51:49","date_gmt":"2024-11-26T09:51:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/?p=90705"},"modified":"2025-09-04T14:45:17","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T07:45:17","slug":"memodelkan-kondisi-hutan-peru-masa-depan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/id\/90705\/memodelkan-kondisi-hutan-peru-masa-depan","title":{"rendered":"Memodelkan kondisi hutan Peru di masa depan"},"content":{"rendered":"

Para perencana kehutanan di Peru bisa memodelkan berbagai skenario untuk deforestasi, emisi gas rumah kaca, dan kredit karbon dengan menggunakan perangkat baru yang dikembangkan oleh para ilmuwan di Pusat Penelitian Kehutanan Internasional dan World Agroforestry (CIFOR-ICRAF<\/a>), Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais di Brasil, dan Pusat Intelijen Teritorial di Minas Gerais.<\/span><\/p>\n

Perangkat simulasi tersebut, yang dinamakan SimPeru dan dirilis pada Desember 2023, bisa diunduh di sini<\/a> secara gratis dan berjalan pada perangkat lunak Dinamica EGO (yang bisa diunduh di sini<\/a>). Dengan perangkat ini, para pembuat kebijakan bisa memodelkan deforestasi di masa depan berdasarkan skenario kondisi seperti biasa dan skenario kepatuhan terhadap komitmen pengurangan emisi gas rumah kaca Peru berdasarkan Perjanjian Paris. Mereka juga dapat memasukan pengaruh rencana kehutanan suatu wilayah tertentu ke dalam pemodelan.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Sebuah cuplikan dari SimPeru menunjukkan hasil perbandingan dari simulasi lanskap dalam berbagai kondisi kebijakan.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Pengguna dapat menjelajahi data untuk seluruh wilayah negara atau menurut wilayah atau departemen tertentu, serta menurut kategori penggunaan lahan, seperti kawasan lindung, hutan yang ditetapkan untuk produksi kayu, serta wilayah masyarakat adat dan masyarakat lokal. Perangkat ini memungkinkan para pembuat kebijakan untuk membandingkan skenario dan mengeksplorasi dampak kebijakan yang ditujukan untuk memenuhi Kontribusi yang Ditetapkan Secara Nasional (NDC) Peru terhadap pengurangan emisi gas rumah kaca.<\/span><\/p>\n

Perangkat pemodelan ini muncul dari studi pola dan batas deforestasi, serta serangkaian dialog antara para ilmuwan dan pembuat kebijakan sebagai bagian dari Studi Komparatif Global tentang REDD+<\/a> yang diluncurkan CIFOR-ICRAF. Dalam studi ini, yang merupakan studi terbesar yang pernah ada, para peneliti yang bekerja di lebih dari 20 negara telah mengumpulkan bukti yang dapat membantu para pembuat kebijakan dalam analisis dan implementasi REDD+ (pengurangan emisi gas rumah kaca dari deforestasi dan degradasi hutan). Penggunaan Lahan, Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan, dan Kehutanan (LULUCF), yang mencakup deforestasi, merupakan sumber emisi antropogenik terbesar di Peru. <\/span><\/p>\n\n

Studi Komparatif Global tersebut mempertemukan para ilmuwan dan pembuat kebijakan untuk mengembangkan strategi guna mengurangi deforestasi dan degradasi hutan. Perangkat SimPeru yang dapat diunduh ini merupakan langkah awal dalam mensistematisasi informasi tentang deforestasi, emisi, dan potensi pendanaan di masa mendatang untuk REDD+ di Peru.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cPerangkat semacam ini sangat menjanjikan, karena situasi di mana perangkat itu akan digunakan berubah sangat cepat,\u201d kata Richard Van der Hoff dari Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. \u201cAkan lebih mudah bagi para pembuat kebijakan untuk membicarakan skenario jika mereka memiliki perangkat yang memungkinkan mereka memvisualisasikan dampaknya.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Para pengembang berharap bisa mengembangkan lebih lanjut perangkat pemodelan ini di masa mendatang, kata Van der Hoff. Salah satu kemungkinannya adalah memasukkan data degradasi hutan ke dalam skenario. Kemungkinan lainnya adalah memasukkan lahan gambut Amazon setelah tersedia data yang cukup, katanya. Penelitian di Peru telah menunjukkan bahwa lahan gambut Amazon merupakan penyerap karbon yang penting, dan bahwa degradasi rawa sawit bisa menjadi sumber emisi gas rumah kaca yang lebih besar ketimbang deforestasi.<\/span><\/p>\n\n

Perangkat pemodelan baru ini memberikan bukti ilmiah dari berbagai ekosistem kepada para pembuat kebijakan untuk membantu dalam pengambilan keputusan. Selain itu, perangkat ini memungkinkan para pembuat kebijakan untuk menyesuaikan parameter guna mengeksplorasi berbagai skenario dan segera memvisualisasikan dampaknya di masa mendatang dalam hal emisi, pengurangan emisi, dan potensi pendanaan REDD+.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cKami tidak bisa meramal masa depan, tetapi berdasarkan informasi sebelumnya, kami bisa membuat skenario terperinci,\u201d kata Juliana Leroy Davis dari Pusat Intelijen Teritorial.<\/span><\/p>\n

Perangkat pemodelan serupa sedang dikembangkan untuk Republik Demokratik Kongo, sementara platform interaktif untuk Brasil telah diluncurkan<\/a> pada Februari.<\/span><\/p>\n\n

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Ucapan Terima Kasih<\/p>\n

Pengembangan perangkat ini dilakukan sebagai bagian dari Studi Komparatif Global tentang REDD+ yang dilakukan oleh Pusat Penelitian Kehutanan Internasional (www.cifor.org\/gcs). Mitra pendanaan yang telah mendukung penelitian ini meliputi Badan Kerja Sama Pembangunan Norwegia (Norad, Hibah No. QZA-21\/0124), Inisiatif Iklim Internasional (IKI) dari Kementerian Federal Jerman untuk Lingkungan Hidup, Konservasi Alam, dan Keselamatan Nuklir (BMU, Hibah No. 20_III_108), dan Program Penelitian tentang Hutan, Pohon, dan Agroforestri CGIAR (CRP-FTA) dengan dukungan finansial dari Donor Dana CGIAR.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Untuk mendapatkan informasi lebih lanjut mengenai topik ini, silakan hubungi Christopher Martius: c.martius@cifor-icraf.org<\/a><\/p>\n

Van der Hoff dan tim pengembang perangkat menyambut baik masukan dari pengguna platform. Komentar dapat dikirimkan ke richard.vanderhoff@inteligenciaterritorial.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Para perencana kehutanan di Peru bisa memodelkan berbagai skenario untuk deforestasi, emisi gas rumah kaca, dan kredit karbon dengan menggunakan perangkat baru yang dikembangkan oleh para ilmuwan di Pusat Penelitian Kehutanan Internasional dan World Agroforestry (CIFOR-ICRAF), Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais di Brasil, dan Pusat Intelijen Teritorial di Minas Gerais. 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