{"id":91545,"date":"2025-03-17T18:38:07","date_gmt":"2025-03-17T11:38:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/?p=91545"},"modified":"2025-09-08T10:43:35","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T03:43:35","slug":"modeliser-la-deforestation-future-au-perou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/fr\/91545\/modeliser-la-deforestation-future-au-perou","title":{"rendered":"Mod\u00e9liser la d\u00e9forestation future au P\u00e9rou"},"content":{"rendered":"

Les planificateurs p\u00e9ruviens peuvent mod\u00e9liser plusieurs sc\u00e9narios de d\u00e9forestation, d\u2019\u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre et de cr\u00e9dits carbone gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 un nouvel outil d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 par des scientifiques du Centre de recherche Foresti\u00e8re Internationale et du Centre International de Recherche en Agroforesterie (CIFOR-ICRAF<\/a>), de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 f\u00e9d\u00e9rale br\u00e9silienne de Minas Gerais et du Centre d\u2019Intelligence Territoriale de Minas Gerais.<\/p>\n

Lanc\u00e9 en d\u00e9cembre 2023, \u00ab SimPeru \u00bb est un outil de simulation t\u00e9l\u00e9chargeable gratuitement<\/a> et fonctionnant avec le logiciel Dinamica EGO<\/a>. Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 lui, les d\u00e9cideurs politiques peuvent mod\u00e9liser la d\u00e9forestation future selon un sc\u00e9nario de statu quo et un sc\u00e9nario de respect des engagements de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre du P\u00e9rou conform\u00e9ment \u00e0 l\u2019Accord de Paris. Ils peuvent \u00e9galement prendre en compte le plan forestier d\u2019une r\u00e9gion sp\u00e9cifique.<\/p>\n

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Une image instantan\u00e9e de l\u2019outil \u00ab SimPeru \u00bb montre une simulation comparative des paysages en fonction de diff\u00e9rentes modalit\u00e9s politiques.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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Les utilisateurs peuvent consulter les donn\u00e9es pour l\u2019ensemble du pays (par r\u00e9gion ou d\u00e9partement) et par cat\u00e9gorie d\u2019utilisation des terres (zones prot\u00e9g\u00e9es, for\u00eats affect\u00e9es \u00e0 la production de bois, communaut\u00e9s autochtones et locales). Cet outil permet aux d\u00e9cideurs politiques de comparer des sc\u00e9narios et d\u2019analyser l\u2019impact des politiques pour atteindre les contributions d\u00e9termin\u00e9es au niveau national (CDN) du P\u00e9rou par rapport \u00e0 la r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre.<\/p>\n

Les outils de mod\u00e9lisation sont issus d\u2019\u00e9tudes sur les sch\u00e9mas et les fronti\u00e8res de la d\u00e9forestation, ainsi que d\u2019une s\u00e9rie de discussions entre scientifiques et d\u00e9cideurs politiques dans le cadre de l\u2019\u00c9tude comparative mondiale du CIFOR-ICRAF sur la r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre li\u00e9es \u00e0 la d\u00e9forestation et \u00e0 la d\u00e9gradation des for\u00eats (REDD+<\/a>). Dans cette \u00e9tude, la plus vaste jamais r\u00e9alis\u00e9e, des chercheurs travaillant dans plus de 20 pays ont compil\u00e9 des donn\u00e9es probantes permettant d\u2019aider les d\u00e9cideurs politiques \u00e0 analyser et \u00e0 mettre en \u0153uvre la REDD+. L\u2019utilisation des terres, le changement d\u2019affectation des terres et la foresterie (UTCATF), qui inclut la d\u00e9forestation, reste la principale source d\u2019\u00e9missions anthropiques au P\u00e9rou.<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tA LIRE EGALEMENT<\/span><\/span>\n\t\t\t\tThe Context of REDD+ in Peru: Drivers, agents and institutions<\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n

L\u2019\u00c9tude comparative mondiale r\u00e9unit scientifiques et d\u00e9cideurs politiques afin de d\u00e9velopper des strat\u00e9gies de r\u00e9duction de la d\u00e9forestation et de la d\u00e9gradation foresti\u00e8re. L\u2019outil t\u00e9l\u00e9chargeable \u00ab SimPeru \u00bb constitue une premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape dans la syst\u00e9matisation des informations sur la d\u00e9forestation future, les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre et le potentiel de financement de la REDD+ au P\u00e9rou.<\/p>\n

\u00ab Ce type d\u2019outil est tr\u00e8s prometteur car le contexte dans lequel il sera utilis\u00e9 \u00e9volue tr\u00e8s rapidement. Il est plus facile pour les d\u00e9cideurs politiques d\u2019\u00e9voquer des sc\u00e9narios s\u2019ils disposent d\u2019un outil leur permettant de visualiser les impacts. Les d\u00e9veloppeurs esp\u00e8rent d\u00e9velopper les outils de mod\u00e9lisation \u00e0 l\u2019avenir \u00bb, a expliqu\u00e9 Richard Van der Hoff de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 f\u00e9d\u00e9rale du Minas Gerais.<\/p>\n

\u00ab Une des possibilit\u00e9s consiste \u00e0 prendre en compte la d\u00e9gradation foresti\u00e8re dans les sc\u00e9narios, tandis qu\u2019une autre est d\u2019inclure les tourbi\u00e8res amazoniennes une fois que suffisamment de donn\u00e9es seront disponibles \u00bb, a-t-il ajout\u00e9. Des \u00e9tudes men\u00e9es au P\u00e9rou ont montr\u00e9 que les tourbi\u00e8res amazoniennes constituent d\u2019important puits de carbone et que la d\u00e9gradation des palmeraies peut constituer une source d\u2019\u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre encore plus cons\u00e9quente que la d\u00e9forestation.<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tA LIRE EGALEMENT<\/span><\/span>\n\t\t\t\tWhat we know about Peruvian peatlands<\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n

Ce nouvel outil de mod\u00e9lisation met \u00e0 la disposition des d\u00e9cideurs politiques des donn\u00e9es scientifiques issues de divers \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes afin de les aider \u00e0 prendre des d\u00e9cisions. De plus, il leur permet de configurer les param\u00e8tres pour \u00e9tudier diff\u00e9rents sc\u00e9narios et visualiser imm\u00e9diatement leurs effets futurs en termes d\u2019\u00e9missions et de r\u00e9duction des \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre et de potentiel de financement REDD+.<\/p>\n

\u00ab Nous n\u2019avons pas de boule de cristal, mais sur la base d\u2019informations ant\u00e9rieures, nous pouvons cr\u00e9er un sc\u00e9nario d\u00e9taill\u00e9 \u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Juliana Leroy Davis du Centre d\u2019Intelligence Territoriale.<\/p>\n

Un outil similaire est actuellement en d\u00e9veloppement pour la R\u00e9publique d\u00e9mocratique du Congo, tandis qu\u2019une plateforme interactive pour le Br\u00e9sil a \u00e9t\u00e9 lanc\u00e9e <\/a>en f\u00e9vrier.<\/p>\n

Pour plus d\u2019informations sur ce sujet, veuillez contacter Christopher Martius : c.martius@cifor-icraf.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Les utilisateurs de la plateforme peuvent envoyer leurs commentaires \u00e0 R. Van der Hoff et \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9quipe de d\u00e9veloppement \u00e0 l\u2019adresse suivante : richard.vanderhoff@inteligenciaterritorial.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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Cette recherche fait partie de l\u2019<\/em>\u00c9tude comparative mondiale du CIFOR sur la REDD+ ((<\/i>www.cifor.org\/gcs<\/i><\/a>)<\/em>. Les partenaires financiers qui ont soutenu cette recherche sont l\u2019Agence norv\u00e9gienne de coop\u00e9ration pour le d\u00e9veloppement (Norad, subvention n\u00b0 QZA-21\/0124), l\u2019<\/em>Initiative internationale pour le climat (IKI)<\/em> du <\/em>minist\u00e8re f\u00e9d\u00e9ral allemand de l\u2019Environnement, de la Protection de la nature, de la S\u00e9curit\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire et de la Protection des consommateurs<\/em> (BMUV, subvention n\u00b0 20_III_108) et le <\/em>Programme de recherche du CGIAR sur les for\u00eats, les arbres et l\u2019agroforesterie (CRPFTA)<\/em> avec le soutien financier des bailleurs de fonds du Fonds du CGIAR.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Les planificateurs p\u00e9ruviens peuvent mod\u00e9liser plusieurs sc\u00e9narios de d\u00e9forestation, d\u2019\u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre et de cr\u00e9dits carbone gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 un nouvel outil d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 par des scientifiques du Centre de recherche Foresti\u00e8re Internationale et du Centre International de Recherche en Agroforesterie (CIFOR-ICRAF), de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 f\u00e9d\u00e9rale br\u00e9silienne de Minas Gerais et du Centre d\u2019Intelligence […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":91546,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12063],"tags":[],"language":[2170],"location":[12229],"tag-bahasa":[],"tag-espanol":[],"tag-francais":[7528,3196],"type-espanol":[],"type-bahasa":[],"type-english":[],"type-francais":[],"coauthors":[831],"class_list":["post-91545","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aliments-et-regimes","language-francais","location-peru","tag-francais-changement-climatique","tag-francais-redd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMod\u00e9liser la d\u00e9forestation future au P\u00e9rou - 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