{"id":33218,"date":"2015-09-10T16:41:54","date_gmt":"2015-09-10T09:41:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/?p=33218"},"modified":"2015-10-08T08:43:09","modified_gmt":"2015-10-08T01:43:09","slug":"la-nouvelle-evaluation-mondiale-et-les-forets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/fr\/33218\/la-nouvelle-evaluation-mondiale-et-les-forets","title":{"rendered":"La nouvelle \u00e9valuation mondiale et les for\u00eats"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le conte indien sur les hommes aveugles et l\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9phant est bien connu. Le po\u00e8te John Godfrey Saxe l\u2019a racont\u00e9<\/a> comme suit :<\/p>\n

It was six men of Indostan, to learning much inclined,<\/em><\/p>\n

who went to see the elephant (Though all of them were blind),<\/em><\/p>\n

that each by observation, might satisfy his mind.<\/em><\/p>\n

Chacun des ces hommes ont v\u00e9rifi\u00e9 diff\u00e9rentes parties de l\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9phant \u2013 une jambe, les d\u00e9fenses, une oreille, la queue, un c\u00f4t\u00e9 \u2013 ce qui abouti \u00e0 des \u00e9valuations diff\u00e9rentes de la cr\u00e9ature et \u00e0 des disputes cons\u00e9cutives. Bien entendu, aucun d\u2019entre eux n\u2019avait de photo compl\u00e8te ou de perspective holistique. Chacun devait plut\u00f4t s\u2019en remettre \u00e0 ses propres observations limit\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Godfrey Saxe conclut :<\/p>\n

And so these men of Indostan, disputed loud and long,<\/em><\/p>\n

each in his own opinion, exceeding stiff and strong,<\/em><\/p>\n

Though each was partly in the right, and all were in the wrong!<\/em><\/p>\n

So, oft in theologic wars, the disputants, I ween,<\/em><\/p>\n

tread on in utter ignorance, of what each other mean,<\/em><\/p>\n

and prate about the elephant, not one of them has seen!<\/em><\/p>\n

Cette semaine nous avons la possibilit\u00e9 de comparer diff\u00e9rentes \u00e9valuations des for\u00eats du monde. La FAO<\/a> pr\u00e9sente les r\u00e9sultats de l\u2019\u00c9valuation des ressources foresti\u00e8res mondiales 2015 (FRA 2015<\/a>) au Congr\u00e8s Forestier Mondial, \u00e0 Durban. Global Forest Watch<\/a> a publi\u00e9 de nouvelles observations satellites mondiales de la r\u00e9duction de la couverture arbor\u00e9e en 2014<\/a>. Et la revue Nature<\/a><\/em> a publi\u00e9 un article<\/a> d\u00e9crivant plus de 400 000 parcelles de terrain provenant des inventaires nationaux des for\u00eats<\/a> qui furent utilis\u00e9es pour compter tous les arbres de la plan\u00e8te.<\/p>\n

Alors, qu’est-ce que ces diff\u00e9rentes \u00e9tudes ont \u00e0 dire sur les ressources foresti\u00e8res mondiales et comment elles changent ?<\/p>\n

FRA 2015 est le plus r\u00e9cent d’une s\u00e9rie de 70 ans de rapports de l’agence onusienne. Lorsque j\u2019\u00e9tais \u00e0 la FAO, j\u2019ai coordonn\u00e9 les \u00e9ditions 2000<\/a> et 2005<\/a> du FRA, donc je suis bien conscient des forces et des faiblesses de ce processus. Le FRA rend compte en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral des ressources foresti\u00e8res, de leur gestion et de leur utilisation dans tous les pays. Son r\u00e9sultat le plus saillant demeure le changement de la superficie des zones foresti\u00e8res, autant globalement que par pays. Cette variable est l\u2019un des indicateurs des Objectifs du Mill\u00e9naire pour le d\u00e9veloppement<\/a> et est le seul indicateur du changement des for\u00eats qui est aussi largement publi\u00e9. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que cela d\u00e9pend principalement de ce que chaque pays rapporte individuellement, le processus du FRA, d\u2019une part, se fonde sur l\u2019engagement solide entre les institutions nationales de tous les pays. Mais, d\u2019autre part, il doit faire face \u00e0 des p\u00e9nuries de donn\u00e9es et \u00e0 des incoh\u00e9rences. Le changement de la superficie foresti\u00e8re est un chiffre de variation nette qui cache le taux total de d\u00e9forestation et d\u2019expansion des for\u00eats (\u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9rieur des pays), tout en masquant n\u2019importe quel am\u00e9liorations ou d\u00e9gradations \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9rieur des for\u00eats. Par cons\u00e9quent, observer l\u2019\u00e9volution nette de la superficie est une perspective incompl\u00e8te, quoique que facile a rendre compte pour un ensemble complet de pays.<\/p>\n

Fait int\u00e9ressant, le rapport FRA 2015 montre une forte diminution continue des pertes nettes de la superficie foresti\u00e8re, se tenant maintenant \u00e0 -3,3Mha\/an, avec une perte indiqu\u00e9e brute (d\u00e9forestation) de -7,6Mha\/an, principalement dans les tropiques. Le graphique ci-dessous illustre comment des rapports FRA subs\u00e9quents ont rapport\u00e9 une diminution nette de la perte des for\u00eats au cours des 35 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Cela indique, que nous pourrions bient\u00f4t avoir un domaine forestier \u00e9quilibr\u00e9 dans le monde, en termes de zones ou de r\u00e9gions.<\/p>\n

\"_graph\"<\/a>
Changement de la superficie foresti\u00e8re mondiale, selon 6 rapports FRA, 1980 – 2015.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Global Forest Watch indique clairement qu’ils ne traitent que de la r\u00e9duction de la couverture arbor\u00e9e mondiale de 2014 dans leur nouvelle publication. Des articles pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents incluaient aussi des augmentations de la couverture arbor\u00e9e, mais cela fut critiqu\u00e9 car les donn\u00e9es de t\u00e9l\u00e9d\u00e9tection ne sont pas assez pr\u00e9cises pour inclure les augmentations lentes de la couverture arbor\u00e9e. Ainsi, les \u00ab pertes \u00bb et les \u00ab gains \u00bb ne peuvent \u00eatre compar\u00e9s. Nous devons aussi mentionner que la couverture arbor\u00e9e n\u2019est pas la m\u00eame chose que le couvert forestier et que la perte de la couverture arbor\u00e9e est tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rente de la perte des for\u00eats. GFW nous dit que la plan\u00e8te a perdu 18 Mha d\u2019arbres en 2014, desquels 9,9 Mha \u00e9taient dans les tropiques. Comme indiqu\u00e9 dans un article de blogue pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment, la r\u00e9duction d\u2019arbres non tropicaux rapport\u00e9e par GFW semble \u00eatre bien \u00e9quilibr\u00e9e par la croissance des arbres au sein des for\u00eats g\u00e9r\u00e9es correctement \u2013 ce qui n\u2019est pas signal\u00e9 par GFW. En ce qui concerne les arbres des tropiques, les pertes de 9,9 Mha semblent correspondent aux indications de d\u00e9forestation du FRA 2015, d\u2019autant plus que certaines des r\u00e9ductions du GFW ne sont probablement pas attribu\u00e9es \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements de d\u00e9forestation.<\/p>\n

Contrairement au FRA 2015, cependant, la mise \u00e0 jour du GFW est livr\u00e9 avec des messages assez diff\u00e9rents et alarmants. Leur communiqu\u00e9 de presse<\/a> (en anglais) indique ceci: \u00ab tree cover loss is rapidly accelerating in the tropics \u00bb, et leur blogue<\/a> d\u00e9clare que \u00ab l’acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la perte de couverture arbor\u00e9e dans les tropiques est une grande pr\u00e9occupation \u00bb. Il n\u2019est pas \u00e9vident, pour moi, que ces affirmations soient fond\u00e9es dans les r\u00e9sultats de la r\u00e9cente mise \u00e0 jour du GFW.<\/p>\n

L\u2019article<\/a> de la revue Nature sur le compte global des arbres apporte une troisi\u00e8me approche dans l\u2019\u00e9tude des for\u00eats du monde. Bas\u00e9 sur plus de 400 000 parcelles de terre (\u00ab gound-sourced \u00bb plots <\/em>) sur le terrain, l\u2019article pr\u00e9sente une qualit\u00e9 de donn\u00e9es la plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e parmi les trois \u00e9tudes, avec un potentiel pour des analyses plus d\u00e9taill\u00e9es. Pour une raison quelconque, le nombre m\u00eame des arbres compt\u00e9s est \u00e9lev\u00e9 au rang de la plus importante conclusion, tandis que la superficie foresti\u00e8re ou les estimations des stocks de carbone ne sont pas incluses \u2013 peut-\u00eatre l\u2019intention \u00e9tait-elle garder ces donn\u00e9es pour de futurs articles ?<\/p>\n

Il existe apparemment environ trois billions d\u2019arbres plus grands que 10 cm de dhp<\/a>. L’application de mod\u00e8les de croissance<\/a> pour d\u00e9terminer le gain de ces arbres dans le temps pourrait devenir un excellent compl\u00e9ment aux donn\u00e9es du GFW sur la perte dela couverture arbor\u00e9e. Au lieu de cela, l\u2019article entre dans une analyse sur les menaces (potentielles) pour les arbres et utilise les r\u00e9sultats du GFW pour estimer le nombre d\u2019arbres perdus \u2013 environ 15 milliards par an \u2013 sans aucune estimation pour le nombre d’arbres nouvellement \u00e9tablis. Il s\u2019agit d\u2019une conclusion scientifique tout \u00e0 fait incompl\u00e8te \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 les efforts majeurs pour la reforestation (27 Mha\/an selon le FRA 2015) par le biais de la plantation et la r\u00e9g\u00e9n\u00e9ration naturelle d\u2019arbres, ce qui sugg\u00e8re que les pertes et les gains d’arbres dans le monde sont beaucoup plus \u00e9quilibr\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Nous avons donc trois histoires et s\u00e9ries de chiffres vari\u00e9es sur la fa\u00e7on dont les for\u00eats du monde sont en train de changer.<\/p>\n

UNE MISE EN GARDE<\/strong><\/p>\n

Werner Heisenberg, r\u00e9cipiendaire d\u2019un Prix Nobel, propose une morale \u00e0 l\u2019histoire des hommes aveugles et de l\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9phant: \u00ab What we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning.<\/a> \u00bb<\/p>\n

Pour ma part, je d\u00e9sire terminer ce blogue avec des mises en garde et des conseils.<\/p>\n

Premi\u00e8rement, nous – et j\u2019inclus CIFOR – devons \u00eatre responsables \u00e0 propos des messages que nous transmettons dans les rapports, les m\u00e9dias et les r\u00e9seaux sociaux. Il y a d\u00e9j\u00e0 eu beaucoup de tweets<\/em> peu critiques, alarmistes, qui par la force de l\u2019habitude, transmettent les d\u00e9clarations dramatiques des nouveaux rapports mondiaux sur les for\u00eats. L’histoire doit \u00eatre nuanc\u00e9e et n\u2019est pas oblig\u00e9e d\u2019\u00eatre sensationnelle \u00e0 tout moment.<\/p>\n

Deuxi\u00e8mement, je recommande des investissements r\u00e9fl\u00e9chis et \u00e0 long terme par des entit\u00e9s du secteur public dans la consolidation des efforts de surveillance. \u00c0 un niveau national, le FRA 2015 rapporte une augmentation des investissements au sein des inventaires nationaux des for\u00eats, mais nous ne semblons pas voir des initiatives similaires sur la sc\u00e8ne mondiale. Le mandat de l\u2019ONU pourrait \u00eatre combin\u00e9 avec la recherche scientifique de mani\u00e8re plus constructive et holistique.<\/p>\n

Troisi\u00e8mement, notez que l\u2019\u00ab \u00e9l\u00e9phant \u00bb est beaucoup plus complexe que les simples messages glan\u00e9s d\u2019algorithmes compliqu\u00e9s et des technologies de l’espace. Les for\u00eats et la foresterie devraient \u00eatre surveill\u00e9es et contr\u00f4l\u00e9es selon une perspective holistique, avec l\u2019ambition claire d\u2019y inclure toutes les contributions au d\u00e9veloppement durable \u2013 \u00e0 travers les dimensions sociale, \u00e9conomique et environnementale. Le processus du FRA est mis en place de mani\u00e8re \u00e0 ce que ce soit fait, mais cela ne transpara\u00eet pas tr\u00e8s vivement \u00e0 travers l\u2019\u00e9dition 2015. Et les \u00e9tudes scientifiques focalisent souvent sur des technologies int\u00e9ressantes, mais limit\u00e9es, comme la t\u00e9l\u00e9d\u00e9tection par satellite.<\/p>\n

Autrement dit, adh\u00e9rer \u00e0 la complexit\u00e9 de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9<\/a> nous m\u00e8nera beaucoup plus loin que des r\u00e9ponses compliqu\u00e9es \u00e0 des questions simplifi\u00e9es.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le conte indien sur les hommes aveugles et l\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9phant est bien connu. Le po\u00e8te John Godfrey Saxe l\u2019a racont\u00e9 comme suit : It was six men of Indostan, to learning much inclined, who went to see the elephant (Though all of them were blind), that each by observation, might satisfy his mind. Chacun des ces […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":71,"featured_media":35524,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[161],"tags":[],"language":[2170],"location":[12217],"tag-bahasa":[],"tag-espanol":[],"tag-francais":[5401,3080,5402,3114,5400,12356,3187],"type-espanol":[],"type-bahasa":[],"type-english":[],"type-francais":[2965],"coauthors":[680],"class_list":["post-33218","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-deforestation","language-francais","location-global","tag-francais-congres-forestier-mondial","tag-francais-deforestation","tag-francais-evaluation-des-ressources-forestieres-mondiales-fra","tag-francais-gestion-forestiere","tag-francais-global-forest-watch","tag-francais-organisation-des-nations-unies-pour-lalimentation-et-lagriculture","tag-francais-peter-holmgren","type-francais-chronique-du-dg"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLa nouvelle \u00e9valuation mondiale et les for\u00eats - Landscape Alliance Forests News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/fr\/33218\/la-nouvelle-evaluation-mondiale-et-les-forets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La nouvelle \u00e9valuation mondiale et les for\u00eats\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le conte indien sur les hommes aveugles et l\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9phant est bien connu. Le po\u00e8te John Godfrey Saxe l\u2019a racont\u00e9 comme suit : It was six men of Indostan, to learning much inclined, who went to see the elephant (Though all of them were blind), that each by observation, might satisfy his mind. 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