{"id":20895,"date":"2014-01-30T06:00:22","date_gmt":"2014-01-29T23:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/?p=20895"},"modified":"2015-07-07T11:41:37","modified_gmt":"2015-07-07T04:41:37","slug":"frayer-un-chemin-aux-decideurs-politiques-parmi-lincertitude-climatique-en-meso-amerique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/fr\/20895\/frayer-un-chemin-aux-decideurs-politiques-parmi-lincertitude-climatique-en-meso-amerique","title":{"rendered":"Frayer un chemin aux d\u00e9cideurs politiques parmi l\u2019incertitude climatique en M\u00e9so-Am\u00e9rique"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Le changement climatique pourrait provoquer une diminution du ruissellement de l’eau dans toute la r\u00e9gion m\u00e9so-am\u00e9ricaine, provoquant la disparition d’esp\u00e8ces des for\u00eats tropicales humides \u00e0 la faveur d\u2019une v\u00e9g\u00e9tation adapt\u00e9e \u00e0 un climat plus sec, selon Bruno Locatelli, chercheur au CIFOR. Photo: CIFOR\/Tomas Munita<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

TURRIALBA, Costa Rica (27 janvier 2014) – De nouvelles \u00e9tudes montrent qu\u2019en Am\u00e9rique centrale et au Mexique le climat de plus en plus chaud et sec pourrait affecter n\u00e9gativement la biodiversit\u00e9 et les services \u00e9cosyst\u00e9miques de la r\u00e9gion au cours des 20 prochaines ann\u00e9es. Ceci pose des d\u00e9fis particuliers aux agriculteurs, aux d\u00e9cideurs politiques et aux gouvernements de la r\u00e9gion m\u00e9so-am\u00e9ricaine, selon une \u00e9tude pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e lors d’une conf\u00e9rence r\u00e9cente au Costa Rica.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00abD\u2019ici 2020 ou 2030, l’Am\u00e9rique centrale pourrait se retrouver dans une situation pour laquelle il n’existe pas d\u2019ant\u00e9c\u00e9dent historique\u00bb, d\u00e9clare Pablo Imbach, agronome et expert en gestion des bassins versants au Centre Agronomique Tropical de Recherche et d’Enseignement sup\u00e9rieur (Centro Agron\u00f3mico Tropical de Investigaci\u00f3n y Ense\u00f1anza, CATIE)<\/a>. Lors de la septi\u00e8me Conf\u00e9rence Scientifique Interam\u00e9ricaine Henry A. Wallace qui a marqu\u00e9 le 40<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u00e8me<\/span><\/span><\/sup><\/span> anniversaire de la fondation CATIE, M. Imbach a signal\u00e9 que les mesures dans la r\u00e9gion montrent une augmentation constante de la temp\u00e9rature<\/a> moyenne.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Les tendances des pr\u00e9cipitations sont moins \u00e9videntes. Pourtant, en d\u00e9pit de cette incertitude, la r\u00e9duction du ruissellement de l’eau dans toute la r\u00e9gion m\u00e9so-am\u00e9ricaine est probable. Ceci m\u00e8nerait \u00e0 la disparition d’esp\u00e8ces des for\u00eats tropicales humides, \u00e0 la faveur d\u2019une v\u00e9g\u00e9tation adapt\u00e9e \u00e0 un climat plus sec, selon Bruno Locatelli, sp\u00e9cialiste en foresterie et en hydrologie au Centre de Recherche Foresti\u00e8re Internationale et au Centre de coop\u00e9ration Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le D\u00e9veloppement<\/a> (CIRAD). <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

En mod\u00e9lisant les interactions entre l’eau et la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation, M. Imbach et M. Locatelli ont constat\u00e9 que la densit\u00e9 et la structure de la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation, ainsi que les \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes et les fonctions des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes sont susceptibles de changer \u00e0 l’avenir, en particulier dans les zones o\u00f9 le paysage bois\u00e9 est remplac\u00e9 par des prairies.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

La v\u00e9g\u00e9tation et les eaux de ruissellement interagissent de fa\u00e7on complexe, dit M. Imbach. Les changements des pr\u00e9cipitations, de la temp\u00e9rature et de l’humidit\u00e9 peuvent modifier la densit\u00e9 et la composition v\u00e9g\u00e9tale. Lorsque les plantes ont acc\u00e8s \u00e0 plus d’eau, elles font pousser plus de feuilles, transpirent plus (en \u00e9mettant de la vapeur) et r\u00e9duisent le ruissellement. Si le sol est plus sec, elles perdent leurs feuilles ou meurent, permettant \u00e0 davantage d’eau de s’\u00e9couler. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Contrairement \u00e0 d’autres \u00e9tudes, les sc\u00e9narios mod\u00e9lis\u00e9s par M. Imbach, M. Locatelli et leurs coll\u00e8gues ont pris en compte ces interactions. Ceci a abouti \u00e0 des pr\u00e9visions plus d\u00e9taill\u00e9es des \u00e9volutions probables de la v\u00e9g\u00e9tation selon divers sc\u00e9narios du changement climatique.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00abNous avons combin\u00e9 136 sc\u00e9narios diff\u00e9rents, afin de d\u00e9terminer la probabilit\u00e9 des changements de caract\u00e9ristiques des \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes\u00bb, d\u00e9clare M. Locatelli.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

En calculant, par exemple, pour cette s\u00e9rie de sc\u00e9narios la probabilit\u00e9 du ruissellement des eaux, au lieu de consid\u00e9rer simplement les variations moyennes, leur analyse peut aider les d\u00e9cideurs politiques \u00e0 \u00e9tablir des priorit\u00e9s afin de cibler des zones sp\u00e9cifiques en M\u00e9so-Am\u00e9rique. \u00abConcernant certains aspects du changement climatique, il peut rester des incertitudes. N\u00e9anmoins, au vu des sc\u00e9narios que nous avons examin\u00e9s, nous savons que dans certaines zones, telles que le Yucatan [dans le sud-est du Mexique], une diminution de la disponibilit\u00e9 en eau est presque certaine\u00bb, d\u00e9clare M. Locatelli.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Fort de cette connaissance, les d\u00e9cideurs politiques pourraient investir des ressources dans des projets et des programmes afin de se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 un avenir plus sec. Si la probabilit\u00e9 \u00e9tait faible, ils pourraient d\u00e9finir des priorit\u00e9s diff\u00e9rentes, dit M. Locatelli.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Comprendre la probabilit\u00e9 des diff\u00e9rents sc\u00e9narios pour des zones locales peut \u00e9galement aider les repr\u00e9sentants des administrations locales \u00e0 \u00e9valuer \u00e0 quel point les populations de ces zones sont vuln\u00e9rables au changement climatique et \u00e0 prendre des mesures pour les aider \u00e0 s’adapter. Ceci n\u00e9cessite une planification aux niveaux national et local, dit M. Locatelli.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Les agriculteurs, par exemple, s’inqui\u00e8tent surtout de l’impact des variations interannuelles des temp\u00e9ratures et des pr\u00e9cipitations sur leurs cultures, dit-il.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Les d\u00e9cideurs politiques pourraient adopter une vision \u00e0 plus long terme. Toutefois, m\u00eame eux ne per\u00e7oivent pas n\u00e9cessairement le changement climatique comme une menace majeure<\/a>, selon une \u00e9tude du CIFOR.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00abNous parlons ici d’impacts qui, d’apr\u00e8s nos connaissances actuelles sur le changement climatique, vont tr\u00e8s probablement avoir lieu \u00e0 l’avenir en M\u00e9so-Am\u00e9rique\u00bb, explique M. Locatelli. \u00abLes r\u00e9sultats de notre travail peuvent aider les d\u00e9cideurs politiques nationaux, les promoteurs de projets et les praticiens \u00e0 d\u00e9cider comment s\u2019adapter.\u00bb<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Pour plus d’informations sur les sujets abord\u00e9s dans cet article, veuillez contacter Bruno Locatelli sur b.locatelli@cgiar.org.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ce travail s’inscrit dans le cadre du Programme de recherche du CGIAR sur les for\u00eats, les arbres et l’agroforesterie et est soutenu par le projet MESOTERRA du Programme agroenvironnemental m\u00e9so-am\u00e9ricain du Centre Agronomique Tropical de Recherche et d’Enseignement sup\u00e9rieur (CATIE). <\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

TURRIALBA, Costa Rica (27 janvier 2014) – De nouvelles \u00e9tudes montrent qu\u2019en Am\u00e9rique centrale et au Mexique le climat de plus en plus chaud et sec pourrait affecter n\u00e9gativement la biodiversit\u00e9 et les services \u00e9cosyst\u00e9miques de la r\u00e9gion au cours des 20 prochaines ann\u00e9es. Ceci pose des d\u00e9fis particuliers aux agriculteurs, aux d\u00e9cideurs politiques et […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":84,"featured_media":20896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[462,137,1072],"tags":[1296,283],"language":[2170],"location":[],"tag-bahasa":[],"tag-espanol":[],"tag-francais":[],"type-espanol":[],"type-bahasa":[],"type-english":[],"type-francais":[],"coauthors":[831],"class_list":["post-20895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change-energy","category-forest-management-restoration","category-landscapes","tag-central-america","tag-latin-america","language-francais"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFrayer un chemin aux d\u00e9cideurs politiques parmi l\u2019incertitude climatique en M\u00e9so-Am\u00e9rique - Landscape Alliance Forests News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/fr\/20895\/frayer-un-chemin-aux-decideurs-politiques-parmi-lincertitude-climatique-en-meso-amerique\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Frayer un chemin aux d\u00e9cideurs politiques parmi l\u2019incertitude climatique en M\u00e9so-Am\u00e9rique\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"TURRIALBA, Costa Rica (27 janvier 2014) – De nouvelles \u00e9tudes montrent qu\u2019en Am\u00e9rique centrale et au Mexique le climat de plus en plus chaud et sec pourrait affecter n\u00e9gativement la biodiversit\u00e9 et les services \u00e9cosyst\u00e9miques de la r\u00e9gion au cours des 20 prochaines ann\u00e9es. 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