{"id":1092,"date":"2011-07-20T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-07-20T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/localhost\/wordpress\/?p=1092"},"modified":"2015-08-24T15:40:07","modified_gmt":"2015-08-24T08:40:07","slug":"combien-coute-la-redd-en-realite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/fr\/1092\/combien-coute-la-redd-en-realite","title":{"rendered":"Combien co\u00fbte la REDD+ en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Par Arild Angelsen<\/a><\/p>\n

Combien co\u00fbte la REDD+ ? Au moins depuis la publication en 2006 du rapport Stern, nombreux sont ceux qui ont avanc\u00e9 que la REDD+ (R\u00e9duction des \u00c9missions li\u00e9es \u00e0 la D\u00e9forestation et \u00e0 la D\u00e9gradation) est l\u2019une des solutions les moins on\u00e9reuses pour att\u00e9nuer le changement climatique. D\u2019autres, au contraire, voient dans le m\u00e9canisme une mesure co\u00fbteuse aux r\u00e9sultats impr\u00e9visibles pour le climat et les populations foresti\u00e8res du monde. Qui a raison ?<\/p>\n

Poser la question \u00ab combien co\u00fbte la REDD+ ? \u00bb est aussi pr\u00e9cis que de demander \u00ab combien co\u00fbte une voiture \u00bb ? Tout d\u00e9pend de la marque, du nombre d\u2019automobiles, et si par \u00ab co\u00fbt \u00bb, on entend le co\u00fbt de production, d\u2019achat, ou d\u2019entretien, etc. La plupart des estimations du co\u00fbt de la REDD+ \u2013 y compris celles du rapport Stern \u2013 s\u2019int\u00e9ressent surtout au concept des co\u00fbts d\u2019opportunit\u00e9s, qui fait r\u00e9f\u00e9rence aux b\u00e9n\u00e9fices escompt\u00e9s de la meilleure solution d\u2019utilisation du sol, mais aussi aux avantages perdus \u00e0 cause de la d\u00e9cision de ne pas<\/i> conserver les for\u00eats. Il s\u2019agit des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices tir\u00e9s de l\u2019agriculture, et aussi souvent des revenus attendus de l\u2019exploitation du bois, du charbon de bois et d\u2019autres produits dont le mode de r\u00e9colte d\u00e9grade les for\u00eats. Un pays s\u2019engageant dans la REDD+ devra \u00e9galement supporter des co\u00fbts de transaction et de mise en \u0153uvre, par exemple le co\u00fbt d\u2019\u00e9tablissement du m\u00e9canisme et d\u2019application des politiques n\u00e9cessaires pour faire aboutir le projet REDD+. La somme des co\u00fbts d\u2019opportunit\u00e9, des co\u00fbts de mise en \u0153uvre (sauf ceux compensant directement les co\u00fbts d\u2019opportunit\u00e9), et des co\u00fbts de transaction (pay\u00e9s aux \u00c9tats et aux usagers des for\u00eats) est par cons\u00e9quent une estimation du co\u00fbt total net de la d\u00e9forestation et de la d\u00e9gradation \u00e9vit\u00e9es pour un pays.<\/p>\n

Toutefois les gouvernements des pays REDD+ peuvent \u00eatre tout autant int\u00e9ress\u00e9s par une variante de cette question : Quels sont les co\u00fbts budg\u00e9taires de la REDD+ ? Les co\u00fbts d\u2019opportunit\u00e9 peuvent \u00eatre un pi\u00e8tre indicateur de ceux-ci, car tout d\u00e9pend des politiques choisies et de leur efficacit\u00e9. Il n\u2019existe qu\u2019un seul cas o\u00f9 les co\u00fbts budg\u00e9taires seraient identiques aux co\u00fbts d\u2019opportunit\u00e9, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire dans l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019un syst\u00e8me \u00ab parfait \u00bb de paiements pour les services environnementaux (PSE) : aucun co\u00fbt de transaction, ciblant uniquement les usagers de la for\u00eat qui projettent d\u2019utiliser leur tron\u00e7onneuse dans les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir, et information compl\u00e8te sur les co\u00fbts d\u2019opportunit\u00e9 des usagers. Bien entendu, ces suppositions ne sont pas r\u00e9alistes, et en pratique le co\u00fbt d\u2019un syst\u00e8me de PSE sera bien plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 \u2013 si toutefois le r\u00e9gime foncier et les autres conditions pr\u00e9alables permettent sa mise en place.<\/p>\n

De nombreuses autres politiques sont possibles en mati\u00e8re de REDD+. Les \u00c9tats peuvent mettre fin aux \u00e9missions de permis pour la conversion foresti\u00e8re, instaurer des zones de protection des for\u00eats et renforcer l\u2019application des lois et r\u00e8glementations foresti\u00e8res, sans indemnisation des usagers actuels et potentiels des for\u00eats. Les co\u00fbts budg\u00e9taires peuvent alors \u00eatre inf\u00e9rieurs aux co\u00fbts d\u2019opportunit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Une troisi\u00e8me solution consiste en des politiques agricoles qui rendent la culture des terres existantes plus int\u00e9ressante que l\u2019empi\u00e8tement sur le domaine forestier. \u00c0 combien s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8vera la facture de ces politiques pour les \u00c9tats ? R\u00e9alis\u00e9e par une \u00e9quipe de scientifiques dirig\u00e9e par Brendan Fisher de Princeton University, une \u00e9tude publi\u00e9e dans Nature Climate Change<\/i>3 traite de cette question dans le cas de la Tanzanie. Ils calculent d\u2019abord les co\u00fbts d\u2019opportunit\u00e9 de la REDD+, en mesurant les avantages actuels de la production agricole et de celle du charbon de bois, pour trouver un montant de l\u2019ordre de 3,20 \u00e0 5,50 USD par tCO2, ce qui est bien en-dessous des prix actuels du carbone sur le march\u00e9 europ\u00e9en du carbone.<\/p>\n

Ensuite, l\u2019\u00e9quipe de recherche envisage la question du co\u00fbt, pour les \u00c9tats ou les bailleurs de fonds, de la mise en \u0153uvre d\u2019une politique visant \u00e0 augmenter les rendements agricoles et l\u2019efficacit\u00e9 de la production de charbon de bois, et par cons\u00e9quent du soulagement de la pression exerc\u00e9e sur les for\u00eats. Ils estiment que ce co\u00fbt est de l\u2019ordre de 4,60 \u00e0 9,40 USD par tCO2, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire bien au-dessus des co\u00fbts d\u2019opportunit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Le grand avantage de la promotion du rendement agricole et de l\u2019efficacit\u00e9 de l\u2019exploitation du charbon de bois est la poursuite de plusieurs objectifs en mati\u00e8re de production alimentaire et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique parall\u00e8lement \u00e0 celui de l\u2019att\u00e9nuation climatique. Les auteurs affirment aussi de fa\u00e7on convaincante que l\u2019accroissement de la production agricole r\u00e9duit le risque de fuite (davantage de d\u00e9gagement forestier en d\u2019autres endroits) comparativement \u00e0, disons, un projet de conservation pure qui restreint seulement l\u2019empi\u00e8tement de l\u2019agriculture.<\/p>\n

La hausse du rendement agricole pour contenir la d\u00e9forestation (hypoth\u00e8se de Borlaug) ou l\u2019augmentation de l\u2019efficacit\u00e9 de la production de combustible en vue de r\u00e9duire la d\u00e9gradation foresti\u00e8re sont des mesures REDD+ qui retiennent de plus en plus l\u2019attention. Un \u00e9clairage s\u2019impose cependant. Men\u00e9s aussi par le CIFOR, des travaux de recherche portant sur le lien entre les technologies agricoles et la d\u00e9forestation ont mis en \u00e9vidence que, dans de nombreux cas, les hausses de rendement dans des lieux pr\u00e9cis rendent simplement plus lucratif l\u2019empi\u00e8tement de l\u2019agriculture sur la for\u00eat, ce qui accentue la d\u00e9forestation plut\u00f4t que cela ne la freine. L\u2019augmentation du rendement est souvent n\u00e9cessaire mais pas suffisante pour obtenir des r\u00e9sultats positifs en mati\u00e8re de conservation des for\u00eats. De m\u00eame, il y a 150 ans, il a \u00e9t\u00e9 observ\u00e9 qu\u2019un meilleur usage du charbon en Angleterre ne r\u00e9duisait pas sa consommation (c\u2019est le paradoxe de Jevons), tout comme l\u2019une des pr\u00e9occupations du monde actuel est l\u2019effet de rebond des progr\u00e8s des technologies li\u00e9es aux \u00e9nergies domestiques (comme l\u2019ont \u00e9voqu\u00e9 Fisher et al<\/i>.). Il faut donc que les politiques en mati\u00e8re d\u2019efficacit\u00e9 du combustible soient associ\u00e9es \u00e0 un meilleur contr\u00f4le de la r\u00e9colte.<\/p>\n

Alors, combien co\u00fbte la REDD+ ? La r\u00e9ponse sans originalit\u00e9 est : \u00ab Cela d\u00e9pend \u00bb, cependant des articles tel que celui de Fisher et al<\/i>. nous procurent de plus en plus d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ments d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation concernant les facteurs en jeu. Premi\u00e8rement, cela d\u00e9pend des co\u00fbts qui sont pris en compte : ceux pesant sur la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 dans son ensemble, sur l\u2019\u00c9tat, sur les usagers des for\u00eats locales, ou sur les n\u00e9gociants de mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res. Deuxi\u00e8mement, cela d\u00e9pend beaucoup de l\u2019ensemble des instruments politiques choisis pour la mise en \u0153uvre de la REDD+. Si la REDD+ peut toujours grandement contribuer \u00e0 l\u2019att\u00e9nuation globale du climat, nous partageons l\u2019avis des auteurs qu\u2019elle est susceptible de se r\u00e9v\u00e9ler moins bon march\u00e9 que ce que l\u2019on pensait il y a encore quelques ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pour consulter l\u2019article de Fisher et al. publi\u00e9 dans Nature Climate Change<\/i>, cliquez<\/a> ici. Pour consulter cet article dans Nature News<\/i>, cliquez<\/a> ici.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6090],"tags":[],"language":[2170],"location":[],"tag-bahasa":[],"tag-espanol":[],"tag-francais":[],"type-espanol":[],"type-bahasa":[],"type-english":[],"type-francais":[2999],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-1092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forests-news","language-francais","type-francais-analyses"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCombien co\u00fbte la REDD+ en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 ? - Landscape Alliance Forests News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/fr\/1092\/combien-coute-la-redd-en-realite\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Combien co\u00fbte la REDD+ en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 ?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Pour consulter l\u2019article de Fisher et al. publi\u00e9 dans Nature Climate Change, cliquez ici. 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