{"id":11429,"date":"2012-11-07T17:52:34","date_gmt":"2012-11-07T17:52:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/?p=11429"},"modified":"2015-07-30T15:59:47","modified_gmt":"2015-07-30T08:59:47","slug":"determinando-la-deforestacion-y-la-deforestacion-como-determinante","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forestsnews.org\/es\/11429\/determinando-la-deforestacion-y-la-deforestacion-como-determinante","title":{"rendered":"Determinando la deforestaci\u00f3n y la Deforestaci\u00f3n como determinante"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Cuando asum\u00ed mi nuevo puesto en el Centro para la Investigaci\u00f3n Forestal Internacional (CIFOR) el mes pasado, observ\u00e9 el llamado Reloj de la Deforestaci\u00f3n Mundial en la <a href=\"\/\/www.cifor.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">p\u00e1gina web de CIFOR,<\/a> que indica a los lectores \u201cel n\u00famero de hect\u00e1reas de bosque perdido desde que uno entra a esta p\u00e1gina.\u201d El n\u00famero seguir\u00e1 aumentando mientras m\u00e1s tiempo se quede en nuestra p\u00e1gina web. En ese momento, tom\u00e9 nota y pens\u00e9 en regresar a esta caracter\u00edstica y revisar qu\u00e9 es lo que comunicamos y porqu\u00e9. Al abrir este recuadro surgen una serie de preguntas interesantes, algunas de las cuales intentar\u00e9 abordar en este texto.<\/p>\n<p>En primer lugar, \u00bfqu\u00e9 est\u00e1 mostrando el reloj? Es importante observar que hay tendencias tanto positivas como negativas, y que el reloj solamente muestra la tendencia negativa. Es decir, existe un \u00e1rea considerable de bosque ganado a lo largo del tiempo y un \u00e1rea perdida a\u00fan m\u00e1s grande. En la <a href=\"ftp:\/\/ftp.fao.org\/docrep\/fao\/003\/Y1997E\/FRA%202000%20Main%20report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">edici\u00f3n del Global Forestal Resources Assessment (Evaluaci\u00f3n de los Recursos Forestales a Nivel Mundial) <\/a>(FRA, por sus siglas en ingl\u00e9s) del 2000, que es producido por mi anterior empleador, la Organizaci\u00f3n de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentaci\u00f3n y la Agricultura (FAO, por sus siglas en ingl\u00e9s), las p\u00e9rdidas estimadas (deforestaci\u00f3n) fueron de 14.8 millones de hect\u00e1reas por a\u00f1o (MHa\/a\u00f1o) y las ganancias 5.6 Mha\/a\u00f1o, dando como resultado un cambio neto de \u00e1rea de -9.4 Mha\/a\u00f1o. En <a href=\"ftp:\/\/ftp.fao.org\/docrep\/fao\/008\/A0400E\/A0400E00.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">FRA de 2005<\/a> no se analizaron los cambios brutos y netos, sino que se present\u00f3 una tasa de deforestaci\u00f3n de 13Mha\/a\u00f1o o 0.41 hect\u00e1reas por segundo (ha\/s) para el periodo 1990-2005, como la suma de todos los informes de pa\u00eds que mostraban una tendencia negativa. Esto es de por s\u00ed una subestimaci\u00f3n, ya que no se toman en cuenta las variaciones dentro de los pa\u00edses, por m\u00e1s que el actual reloj usa este cifra. Las cifras de <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fao.org\/docrep\/013\/i1757e\/i1757e.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">FRA 2010<\/a> ya est\u00e1n disponibles y muestran una tasa m\u00e1s baja de cambio de \u00e1rea neta de -5.2 Mha\/a\u00f1o para 2000-2010. El informe FRA de 2010 indica igualmente una deforestaci\u00f3n \u201ccercana a 16Mha\/a\u00f1o\u201d para 1990-2010, en base a an\u00e1lisis similares a los de FRA de 2000. Se dice que esta cifra es \u201cm\u00e1s precisa\u201d, pero no se hace referencia a la forma en que se calcul\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>En mi opini\u00f3n, no existe en este momento ninguna alternativa apropiada a la informaci\u00f3n de FRA, basada en informes de pa\u00eds para el cambio global de \u00e1reas forestales. Se han hecho varios intentos cient\u00edficos para inferir los cambios empleando datos globales de percepci\u00f3n remota, pero t\u00edpicamente estos ilustran los cambios en la cobertura de \u00e1rboles (que es diferente a cambios en el \u00e1rea forestal), y ha habido distintos acercamientos y aspiraciones para verificaci\u00f3n en campo. Si bien la ciencia est\u00e1 avanzando en este campo, el estatus oficial de las cifras de FRA las hace de uso m\u00e1s apropiado.<\/p>\n<p>Sin embargo, lo que realmente cambiar\u00e1 la situaci\u00f3n ser\u00e1n los hallazgos de un levantamiento global con percepci\u00f3n remota llevado a cabo por la FAO y la Comisi\u00f3n Europea (CE), realizado a trav\u00e9s de alrededor de 10,000 muestras a nivel mundial, que involucran la experiencia local y verifican los cambios en el terreno. <a href=\"http:\/\/foris.fao.org\/static\/data\/fra2010\/RSS_Summary_Report_lowres.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Los resultados preliminares<\/a> confirman discrepancias en los datos reportados por los pa\u00edses, incluyendo sobreestimados de la deforestaci\u00f3n en \u00c1frica, como ya se ha mostrado en FRA 2000 (<a href=\"ftp:\/\/ftp.fao.org\/docrep\/fao\/003\/Y1997E\/FRA%202000%20Main%20report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">ver p\u00e1gina 316<\/a>). A nivel mundial, el estudio confirma la tasa de deforestaci\u00f3n reportada en FRA 2000 y posteriormente, e igualmente confirma las ganancias considerables de bosques en muchas regiones. Los resultados finales podr\u00edan cambiar la forma en que vemos la din\u00e1mica del uso de la tierra, as\u00ed como tambi\u00e9n sus tendencias inherentes.<\/p>\n<p>La siguiente pregunta ser\u00eda \u00bfporqu\u00e9 la cifra de deforestaci\u00f3n se elije como el \u00fanico indicador de tendencias forestales proporcionadas al p\u00fablico en general? Este no es un fen\u00f3meno nuevo. Cuando se seleccionaron los indicadores para las Metas de Desarrollo del Milenio hace m\u00e1s de 10 a\u00f1os, este era el indicador forestal a elegir (a pesar de que para ser claros, el indicador es el cambio de \u00e1rea neta y no la deforestaci\u00f3n). No solamente tuvo resonancia pol\u00edtica, sino que hubo un conjunto de datos disponibles para cada pa\u00eds (un criterio para <a href=\"http:\/\/mdgs.un.org\/unsd\/mdg\/Default.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">informar los indicadores de las MDM).<\/a> Esto signific\u00f3 tambi\u00e9n que los temas forestales estuvieron firmemente ubicados bajo la meta del medio ambiente (MDM-7) y solamente eran visibles bajo este encabezado. Desde los informes muy tempranos (por ejemplo <a href=\"http:\/\/ia600200.us.archive.org\/20\/items\/forestresourceso00zonrrich\/forestresourceso00zonrrich.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Zon 1910<\/a>) hasta las deliberaciones sobre REDD+ en la actualidad, el cambio de \u00e1rea forestal ha sido el concepto que se ha quedado en la mente de las personas dentro y fuera de la comunidad de especialistas en silvicultura. Resulta ir\u00f3nico entonces que la cifra hable m\u00e1s sobre desarrollos de agricultura que de silvicultura. El cambio de \u00e1rea forestal no parece estar particularmente bien correlacionado con las contribuciones de la silvicultura al desarrollo sostenible.<\/p>\n<p>En un blog, que se publicar\u00e1 en breve, sugerir\u00e9 una nueva forma de \u201ctomarle el tiempo\u201d a los Bosques del Mundo.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cuando asum\u00ed mi nuevo puesto en el Centro para la Investigaci\u00f3n Forestal Internacional (CIFOR) el mes pasado, observ\u00e9 el llamado Reloj de la Deforestaci\u00f3n Mundial en la p\u00e1gina web de CIFOR, que indica a los lectores \u201cel n\u00famero de hect\u00e1reas de bosque perdido desde que uno entra a esta p\u00e1gina.\u201d El n\u00famero seguir\u00e1 aumentando mientras [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":71,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[161],"tags":[],"language":[2169],"location":[],"tag-bahasa":[],"tag-espanol":[],"tag-francais":[],"type-espanol":[2966],"type-bahasa":[],"type-english":[],"type-francais":[],"coauthors":[680],"class_list":["post-11429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deforestation","language-espanol","type-espanol-columna-del-director-general"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.4 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - 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